My first Dynasty Football League

It's starting to be that time of year again.  Fantasy football is just around the corner.  This time of year is when Dynasty leagues and Keeper leagues "shine", leaving the late summer timeframe (August) to redraft leagues.

This year is the first time that I have ever done a dynasty draft for fantasy football.  Dynasty leagues have a lot of appeal to those that enjoy playing against the same people from year to year and those that enjoy playing for the long term AND short term as far as team construction.  I'm a freak, so i enjoy doing this kind of thing (i joined 3 keeper leagues in fantasy baseball just this year, knowing that maybe one will stay around next year)

For those of you who have never done dynasty football or baseball here is generally what it consists of and can bring to the table as far as fantasy sports is concerned:

1) You pick a team.  Generally speaking dynasty leagues have more bench spots, though that is not always the case.  From here you have a lot of ways you can draft a team.  Win now, Win later, win now and later etc.  Young "studs" are more expensive in these types of leagues than they would be in redraft leagues.  In baseball leagues this is especially devistating for those that put too much stock in one year wonders (Hosmer, Lawrie) and not enough in veterens.

2) Do trades throughout the year.  Noone gets the exact team they want.  If you do, you are playing against idiots.  With that said trades generally happen more often in these kinds of leagues than in others.  Once you are halfway through the year, teams will make adjustments to their roster, trying to dump off older players for younger (usually older players end up on the teams that are winning that want the final push to make the playoffs)

3) After the year and before the next year begins, you drop some players and do a small redraft.  This is generally for rookies (or anyone else that isnt already taken).  In dynasty leagues it's usually something small like 4 rounds (though i have seen some that are 6 or 7 rounds, which is too many for my tastes)

With that said I'll show you what i did in my first Fantasy football dynasty league in the initial draft (slow draft over the ESPN message boards).  League had oddish settings for scoring (generally everyone scored about 10x more than standard) so QB totals are inflated alot more than normal.  Generally its a PPR league with IDP (individual defensive position) with bonuses for big games (yardage in a single game bonuses).  The IDP is tackle heavy.  Starters are QB/RBx2/WRx2/Flex/LBx2/DBx3/DFlex/K.  10 bench slots (3IR).

There were 6 things I had in mind going into the draft.
1) QBs were important to draft early.  If i could get Rodgers or Brees, I could rest safe knowing I had points others couldnt account for on a weekly basis.
2) Elite LB scored about 400 points more than "normal" LB.  attempting to lock up the position earlier than others could would be key.
3)DB were bunched together in about a 200 point difference for the top 15 or so.  Of starters these would be my last
4)Get Graham/Gronk in the second round if possible.  They represented about a 400 point difference.  Prioritize Graham over Gronk (fewer weapons, TD are harder to predict)
5) The one everyone disagrees with.  Priortize WR with large upside that are young early.  RB come into the league and exit the league at a fast pace.  Getting a non-top flight RB in round 1-3 would mean in 2-3 years that pick is out of the league or useless.
6) Along with 5, I wanted a ton of low cost (i.e. low drafted) RB.  Like 8 of them.  Prioritizing 2 guys who i could draft low that would be servicable for the year until hopefully 1 of the other 6 emerge on their teams.  Targets: Hillis, Starks, Donald Brown, Hillman, Pead, Wilson, Ben tate, Stewart.

With that in mind, I got the 7th pick (of 10) and began thinking of what i could/should do.

Picks 1-6 went as expected to me (combination of Rice/Foster/McCoy/Rodgers/Brees/Calvin Johnson).  This left me with a decision to make.  Do I take Brady?  Do i Trust Cam Newton?  Do I trust the oft injured Stafford?  What happens to Staffords value if either he gets injured OR Johnson gets injured? (my guess is his value tanks).  I think I can get Brady if i trade away my second round pick so I take a gamble.  I trade my 2.04/3.07/14.04 for someone elses 2.10/3.1/10.1.  This move is INTENDED to still get me a QB (Brady is old, I didnt think anyone would take him) and move up in the third to get a stud young WR1 type while also moving up my average pick number (give up a 14 for a 10 is great value to me)

With what I did, I picked Graham first.  I dont regret the pick, I knew i would not get him at 2.10 and it locked up a position for me above everyone but 1 person.  He scored WR1 numbers.

Then i got a kick in the crotch.  Newton, Stafford, Brady all went in the next 5 picks.  My gamble did not pay off.  So what did i do with my next 2 picks? I went double young WR1 to lock up the position for the next 5-10 years (Hopefully).  I got Julio Jones and AJ Green.  Both very high upside.  Both should be WR1 types for the forseeable future.  Both would be gone by my next pick (4.04)

Looking at the landcape of what was happening I decided to amass picks in the first 10 rounds to get RB and LB.  The only way to do this was to trade trade trade.  I sucessfully traded 4.04/12.04/15.07 for 6.05/8.05/10.05. This left me without another pick until 5.07 which I used ON Percy Harvin.  I think he is a top 10 player as long as the Vikings use him.  Young, stud number 1 receiver in round 5? Yes I'll take that

Right before I made my pick at 6.04 I noticed something that i had apparently misread earlier.  5 RB limit (talking to the GM its to make waivers more interesting).  This screwed my "take a boatload of backup RB" plan.  I admittedly panicked.  I took Fred Jackson, who is decent value at this spot BUT is old (31) and has a capable backup (Spiller).  When i took him i hoped to be able to get Spiller the next round, which did not happen (someone else took Spiller).  Without being able to get Spiller to back up Jackson, I decided to do what everyone complained about.  Traded my next pick (my recently accquired 6.05).  6.05/16.04/17.07 for 7.05/11.05/12.06 was an exceptional trade for me (and my last, after getting so many picks in a row people stopped trading with me as they saw what I was doing and the players it resulted in themselves getting.  For the record he took RGIII/Luck with 2 picks in a row to get his QB position.

You will notice one thing that I had done with this.  No QB yet.  with the trades, nothing seemed like a good value to me. and once you are past the elites, the difference is not as major as some may believe.  So i decided to wait.  Some people took backups (4 before I picked 1) which were wasted picks to me, but I was happy to wait.

My next pick was 7.05 (trade).  I decided on Roy Helu since Spiller was gone.  Helu SHOULD start as the Redskins RB1.  He is their best RB and can be a 3 down back all year long on a team with a rookie QB.  If he produces like he did in his limited starts last year he is a borderline RB1 IMO. so getting him in round 7 based purely on his coach is a blessing for a guy like me who waited on RB.  It also helps that he is young as well.

At this point I am looking at point differentials for players and decide to start the IDP run.  3 LB (I have 3 of the next 9 picks.  I wanted Willis but he was taken too early.  I wanted D'Qwell Jackson but he got taken directly before my pick.  This left me with "settling" for Laurinitis, Daryl Washington, and Derrick Johnson.  First 2 are young and the leaders of their teams.  Johnson is a little older but really only competes with Berry for tackles.  I have 3 top 10 LB which should be a large advantage over everyone else.

By round 9 I couldnt wait on QB any longer and I "settled" for Payton Manning.  I might only get 2 years out of him, or zero.  But if he is Healthy he can be a top 5 or 6 QB so to get him in the 9th round is outstanding to me.

By now I have a mass of picks lined up to take advantage of everyone else.  With my next 6 picks I take:  Antoine Bethea (Should get lots of work as Indy figures out how to play offense), Tyvon Branch (always a lot of tackles for consistancy), Beanie Wells (a RB with guarenteed touches every week), Charles Tillman (always a high tackle DB), Payton Hillis (more guarenteed carries), Big ben (Backup QB who can get into the top 10 QBs on a yearly basis).

List of remaining Picks:
Ronnie Hillman (backup to an old McGahee, RB1 upside)
Lawrence Timmons (cannot believe he was not taken earlier, 1 down year and everyone forgets him? excellent value for a bye week fill in)
Darius Heyward Bay (could be WR1 in Oakland this year, Palmer Likes him)
Carson Palmer (shotgun pickup.  I wanted to get the max 4 on QB since i waited so long on them and he was best still there)
Mohamud Sanu (another shotgun pickup.  with these guys I dont care if i drop them)
Randell Cobb (apparently everyone forgot he existed as less talented backup DB went off the board before him.....kickers too which is a cardinal sin in my book)
Kevin Kolb (If he bounces back to a reasonable level he can be a bye week Fill in)
Rob Bironas (needed a kicker, him being week 11 only helps me.  weakish offense as well so that can help a little too)

List of picks by position:
QB:

Payton Manning
Ben Roethlesberger
Carson Palmer
Kevin Kolb

RB:

Fred Jackson
Roy Helu
Payton Hillis
Beanie Wells
Ronnie Hillman

WR:

Julio Jones
AJ Green
Percy Harvin
Darius Heyward Bay
Mohamud Sanu
Randell Cobb

TE:

Jimmy Graham

LB:

James Laurinitis
Daryl Washington
Derrik Johnson
Lawrence Timmons

DB:

Antoine Bethea
Tyvon Branch
Charles Tillman

K:

Rob Bironas

Let me know what you guys think of my team if you read this.  I would be interested in knowing what your thoughts are on how I went about making my mind up on this team. i was obviously disappointed in the RB part, but I think I will survive it as long as I dont get too many injuries specifically to guys like Jackson and Wells.

What I've learned about fantasy baseball (so far)

Were approximately 1/3 of the way through the baseball season so it's as good a time as any to take a look at your fantasy baseball lineups and decide the direction you need to take with your teams.  It's my firm belief that the season for anyone in 10 team mixed leagues is still salvagable, dependingon the activity of your league, any deeper and it will depend on circumstances.  If you are not in the top half in a dynasty league (I'd count that as a keeper league of 7 or more players with 14 or more teams personally) you are probably in trouble at this point but there is always next year.


Here is a list of things that have shocked me to learn, affirmed what i originally thought (but went against anyways because i was a sheep in some drafts) or generally are things I have learned in my first year of doing fantasy baseball.

Draft hitters early and often


Looking at the top 25 players on ESPNs player rater (not the best metric of course, but it's an easy to understand list of the who is who of fantasy baseball in standard roto leagues) you see the following trends:

10 hitters with an ADP that put them in the first 4 rounds appear in the top 25 on the player rater. In order: Hamilton, CarGo, Braun, Votto, Bourn, McCutchen, Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Castro,  Konerko

0 Pitchers drafted in the top 4 rounds of drafts (normally top 12 pitchers) are in the top 25 on the player rater

Of the top 25 BATTERS 13 commonly went in the top 25-30 picks (over a 50% rate)

4 of the top 25 pitchers were top 30 picks.

9 of the top 25 pitchers were waiver pickups in 12 team leagues or less at the beginning of the year.

3 of the top 25 hitters were waiver pickups.

With these kinds of stats I'm inclined to pick up pitching off waivers and stream more.  In some leagues i drafted some decent starting pitchers (Targeted Cain in particular along with CJ Wilson) but mostly went for late guys and decided to hit the waiver wire.  For the roto leagues I decided to try "good pitching" on I am in an almost unrecoverable position in HR/RBI/AVG.

Don't Pay for Saves


How many teams are with the same closer that they started Spring Training with?  Orioles, Diamondbacks, Braves, Indians, Rockies, Astros, Twins, Brewers, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals.  Not even HALF!  Besides Kimbral and Axford, none of the teams that have their original closer were drafted as a top 10 closer, most were drafted as a bottom half closer.

Why do I mention this?  Kimbrel went for $19 in my 12 team roto auction draft.  I got Hamilton for $22 and currently have Rodney, Chris Perez and Soriano closing games for me all for $1 (Perez in draft, Rodney/Soriano in FAAB).  Im leading the league in saves BTW.

In the leagues where I thought I would try for the "established" guys I have been bured and have had to get guys off waivers anyways.  So I'm going to cut out the middle man and take 2 or 3 guys for a max of $8 in auctions next year.

Don't draft sophomore hitters and project them to be what they are not 


I have to admit, I didnt fall for this trick in my leagues anyways.  But it bears repeating.  Small sample sizes are bad for projecting a whole years worth of hitting.  This years darlings of the draft that are the main culprits.

Brett Lawrie: 14 on the Player rater at 3B.  .279 5HR 30 R 25 RBI 8 SB.  People were projecting about .280/25/80/80/15 and are woefully off on 3.

Eric Hosmer: 27th at 1B on player rater.  .221/7HR/25R/30RBI/5SB.  Projections: .295/25HR/90/90/12.  His batting average is killing his fantasy value.

These were guys in the 4th and 5th round.  In a dynasty league I am in, Hosmer was sucessfully traded for Pujols.  Yes you read that right.  People went crazy for these fellas and they are getting burned by the pick.  To put it in perspective I got Hamilton for again, $22.  Lawrie went for $21.

Draft HR, get SB/Runs off waivers not the other way around!


HR hitters are hard to come by.  Of those with 10 or more, only 7 were not drafted.  Average is also hard to chase.  12 players have an average over .300.  9 of those 12 players have 10 or more HR.  The perfect players to draft IMO are guys who can bring you both.

My perfect 10 team mixed league dream team if I could redraft today (approximation of where they went in drafts in March):


Round 1: Joey Votto. (1B)
Round 2: Hanley Ramirez (SS/3B)
Round 3: Andrew McCutchen (OF)
Round 4: Josh Hamilton (OF)
Round 5: Matt Cain (SP)
Round 6: Elvis Andrus (SS)
Round 7: Adam Jones (OF)
Round 8: Carlos Beltran (OF)
Round 9: Brandon Beachy (SP)
Round 10: Edwin Encarnacion (3B)
Round 11: Melky Cabrera (OF)
Round 12: Johnny Cueto (SP)
Round 13: Jason Kipnis (2B)
Round 14: Josh Willingham (OF)
Round 15: Adam Dunn (1B)
Round 16: Jose Altuve (2B)
Round 17: Shaum Marcum (SP)
Round 18: Aroldis Chapman (RP)
Round 19: Kenley Jansen (RP)
Round 20: Johan Santana (SP)
Round 21: RA Dickey (SP)
Round 22: Tyler Clippard (RP)

Think about it like this.  That team is someones starting fantasy team roster.  How badley are they crushing their competition?  I'd say they have about a 20 point or more lead on their opponents.  While it's easy to show this its harder to predict this team.