Were approximately 1/3 of the way through the baseball season so it's as good a time as any to take a look at your fantasy baseball lineups and decide the direction you need to take with your teams. It's my firm belief that the season for anyone in 10 team mixed leagues is still salvagable, dependingon the activity of your league, any deeper and it will depend on circumstances. If you are not in the top half in a dynasty league (I'd count that as a keeper league of 7 or more players with 14 or more teams personally) you are probably in trouble at this point but there is always next year.
Here is a list of things that have shocked me to learn, affirmed what i originally thought (but went against anyways because i was a sheep in some drafts) or generally are things I have learned in my first year of doing fantasy baseball.
Draft hitters early and often
Looking at the top 25 players on ESPNs player rater (not the best metric of course, but it's an easy to understand list of the who is who of fantasy baseball in standard roto leagues) you see the following trends:
10 hitters with an ADP that put them in the first 4 rounds appear in the top 25 on the player rater. In order: Hamilton, CarGo, Braun, Votto, Bourn, McCutchen, Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Castro, Konerko
0 Pitchers drafted in the top 4 rounds of drafts (normally top 12 pitchers) are in the top 25 on the player rater
Of the top 25 BATTERS 13 commonly went in the top 25-30 picks (over a 50% rate)
4 of the top 25 pitchers were top 30 picks.
9 of the top 25 pitchers were waiver pickups in 12 team leagues or less at the beginning of the year.
3 of the top 25 hitters were waiver pickups.
With these kinds of stats I'm inclined to pick up pitching off waivers and stream more. In some leagues i drafted some decent starting pitchers (Targeted Cain in particular along with CJ Wilson) but mostly went for late guys and decided to hit the waiver wire. For the roto leagues I decided to try "good pitching" on I am in an almost unrecoverable position in HR/RBI/AVG.
Don't Pay for Saves
How many teams are with the same closer that they started Spring Training with? Orioles, Diamondbacks, Braves, Indians, Rockies, Astros, Twins, Brewers, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals. Not even HALF! Besides Kimbral and Axford, none of the teams that have their original closer were drafted as a top 10 closer, most were drafted as a bottom half closer.
Why do I mention this? Kimbrel went for $19 in my 12 team roto auction draft. I got Hamilton for $22 and currently have Rodney, Chris Perez and Soriano closing games for me all for $1 (Perez in draft, Rodney/Soriano in FAAB). Im leading the league in saves BTW.
In the leagues where I thought I would try for the "established" guys I have been bured and have had to get guys off waivers anyways. So I'm going to cut out the middle man and take 2 or 3 guys for a max of $8 in auctions next year.
Don't draft sophomore hitters and project them to be what they are not
I have to admit, I didnt fall for this trick in my leagues anyways. But it bears repeating. Small sample sizes are bad for projecting a whole years worth of hitting. This years darlings of the draft that are the main culprits.
Brett Lawrie: 14 on the Player rater at 3B. .279 5HR 30 R 25 RBI 8 SB. People were projecting about .280/25/80/80/15 and are woefully off on 3.
Eric Hosmer: 27th at 1B on player rater. .221/7HR/25R/30RBI/5SB. Projections: .295/25HR/90/90/12. His batting average is killing his fantasy value.
These were guys in the 4th and 5th round. In a dynasty league I am in, Hosmer was sucessfully traded for Pujols. Yes you read that right. People went crazy for these fellas and they are getting burned by the pick. To put it in perspective I got Hamilton for again, $22. Lawrie went for $21.
Draft HR, get SB/Runs off waivers not the other way around!
HR hitters are hard to come by. Of those with 10 or more, only 7 were not drafted. Average is also hard to chase. 12 players have an average over .300. 9 of those 12 players have 10 or more HR. The perfect players to draft IMO are guys who can bring you both.
My perfect 10 team mixed league dream team if I could redraft today (approximation of where they went in drafts in March):
Round 1: Joey Votto. (1B)
Round 2: Hanley Ramirez (SS/3B)
Round 3: Andrew McCutchen (OF)
Round 4: Josh Hamilton (OF)
Round 5: Matt Cain (SP)
Round 6: Elvis Andrus (SS)
Round 7: Adam Jones (OF)
Round 8: Carlos Beltran (OF)
Round 9: Brandon Beachy (SP)
Round 10: Edwin Encarnacion (3B)
Round 11: Melky Cabrera (OF)
Round 12: Johnny Cueto (SP)
Round 13: Jason Kipnis (2B)
Round 14: Josh Willingham (OF)
Round 15: Adam Dunn (1B)
Round 16: Jose Altuve (2B)
Round 17: Shaum Marcum (SP)
Round 18: Aroldis Chapman (RP)
Round 19: Kenley Jansen (RP)
Round 20: Johan Santana (SP)
Round 21: RA Dickey (SP)
Round 22: Tyler Clippard (RP)
Think about it like this. That team is someones starting fantasy team roster. How badley are they crushing their competition? I'd say they have about a 20 point or more lead on their opponents. While it's easy to show this its harder to predict this team.
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