Over Reacting

This is my third blog post and already I'm going to talk about two separate things with the same theme.  Overreacting.  Brewers fans and fantasy baseball players are both doing the same thing.  Small sample sizes are small.  The beauty of the 162 game season is that it provides a very large sample size with which to draw conclusions (both of your team and the individual players.

Brewers Fans:


I understand the frustration.  lost 2 of 3 to the Cardinals (who are hitting out of this world right now. .346 BABIP which is unsustainably high and a .206 ISO which is also unsustainable), won 3 of 4 against the lowly Cubs (lost the last game 8-0 though) and then got swept by the Braves at Turner Field.

Now we get the red hot Dodgers at home.  9-1 through 10 games vs 4-6 through 10 games.

Let me emphasize this point: It's 10 games into the season.

That's less than 1/16th a full seasons sample size.  Player projections are based off of what people believe he is going to do over the course of the year.  Lets look at some of the scapegoats so far this year:

Aramis Ramirez:  People like to talk about how he's not a replacement for Fielder.  Yes, he's not.  He's not going to get the walks, he's not going to get the homeruns, he's not going to get people pitching around him.

You know what else he's not going to do?  Bat .114 with a .149 OBP and a .171 SLG.  If he batted those kinds of numbers two things would happen:  First he'd make history as having the worst every day players batting line in league history. Second he'd be benched before too long for someone else.

Aramis has a .143 BABIP, in other words when he hits the ball in play, he is only getting a hit 14.3% of the time.  League average? .300 or so.  Can you imagine his line if he came up to league average in BABIP which is largely luck based?

If you want to be angry at Aramis for something, make it his K% of 20%.  As a matter of fact make that a common theme for the next 2 guys as well.

Rickie Weeks:  Batting Leadoff, but he shouldn't be.  .184 AVG, .295 OBP, .342 SLG.  Partially due to his lower BABIP than league average (.238) but mostly due to his gigantic K rate (34%).  Why he is batting leadoff is beyond me.  Managers like Roenoke like to talk about how good he is at making things happen and scoring runs.  Well he's not getting on base to score and he's not even really seeming to try.  You don't need 2 HR 10 games into the season from your leadoff hitter in the National League.  You are leaving a lot of runs hanging out there with him at leadoff

Nyjer Morgan:  Even smaller sample size than the last 2 guys since he platoons.  I like Nyjer, i really do.  But he's more likable because of his antics than his play to me.  He's too prone to streakiness.  .143 batting, .143 OBP, .143 SLG with a .190 BABIP.  He will improve, but i don't ever believe he should hit out of the 2 hole.

Dispite all of those stats one thing needs to be noted.  Even a single hit in a game will drive those numbers up by a pretty decent amount.  Why?  Very small sample sizes.

Last years lines for these 3 players: (AVG/OBP/SLG/BABIP/K%)

Ramirez: .306/.361/.510/.308/11%


Weeks: .269/.350/.468/.310/20.8%

Morgan:  .304/.357/.421/.368/16.3%


Note: BABIP tends to be higher the faster you are and the more infield hits you can leg out.

These guys will be fine.  As the inevitable correction (or benching) happens the Brewers will win more games.

Fantasy and reasons not to worry/reasons to not believe:


Tim Lincecum:
Bad: 10.54 ERA in 13.2 IP over 3 starts
Good: 3.32 FIP, 2.64 xFIP, 10.54 K/9, 2.63 BB/9
Reason for bad outings: BABIP of .426 is historically bad and won't continue.  peripherals look great for an Ace on a roto staff dispite 2 losses.

Miguel Cabrera:
Bad: .222 AVG (you went the number 1 or 2 pick expecting somewhere around .310-.320)
Good: 3 HR, 7 Runs, 9 RBI and almost a 16% walk rate.
Reason for bad(?) start: BABIP of .179.  when he puts the ball in play it seems like its a home run or an out.  This will rebound and so will every other number of his.

Austin Jackson:
Good: .405 avg, .511 OBP 11 runs.
Bad: 24.4% K rate
Reason for start: BABIP is close to double league average.  everything is falling his way right now, it will not last and the almost 25% K rate will catch up to him.  He's going to bat .250 by the end of the year mark my words