I havent blogged in a while. Starting this blog was kind of at a weird time for me. Since my last blog I got married to my wonderful wife Nicole and went on my honeymoon to the West Coast. Anyone who has a chance should take the time to drive the Pacific Coast Highway if they can, it's a pretty great drive up the California coast in particular.
Anyways, back to business. Baseball is still here and I have a few topics to talk about.
1) Brewers are in a little bit of trouble. Narveson out for the year (rotator cuff). Alex Gonzalez out for the year (ACL). Mat Gamel out for the year (ACL). Carlos Gomez is also out with a hurt hamstring and Ryan Braun has an achey achilles tendon. All of these are gigantic blows to the team.
While I'm not giving up on the team, this significantly decreases their chances of repeating as NL Central champions and possibly pushes them out of the playoffs. I'm sure Doug Melvin is a realist and knows this as well. a Travis Ishikawa/Taylor Greene/Brooks Conrad platoon at first base alongside a Cezar Isturis/Maysonet share at shortstop is not a lot of offensive production as pretty much none of them would be starters on any other team. I don't see how they get out of that kind of hole with their players. They don't have a lot of help in the minors as of right now due to previous trades (Marcum and Greinke trades specifically)
My feeling on this is that by the trade deadline the Brewers are going to be heavy sellers. They can get a lot of value for a lot of their players in the form of prospects that they desperately need and at the same time they can get some of their minor leaguers some professional experience. If I was the GM here's what I would do:
a) Sign Zack Greinke if at all possible. If it's not trade him. This must be done first. Greinke wants to play for a winner and theres no way he will agree to stay if he sees the team selling off parts.
b) Trade Marcum. Were not going to be able to keep both Greinke and Marcum after this year. We want Greinke above Marcum for obvious reasons. If Greinke wont sign we might as well keep Marcum. Keeping either would maintain a competitive 1/2 pitching combination going forward.
c) Controversy number 1: trade Weeks. I've never liked Weeks. His career year has been slightly above league average which is decent for a second baseman but not for how much we pay. The Brewers desperately need people who can consistently get on base. Scooter Gennet i believe can be the guy to do it. The other option, start Scooter playing SS instead of second base.
d) Trade K-Rod. His signing was a "mistake". He wasnt expected to take arbitration as no GM in their right mind pays that kind of money to a set-up man. This ones easy to see coming if they are out of competition by July.
e) Controversy number 2: Trade Axford. Listen, I like Axford as a pitcher, but his value may never be higher if he continues to pitch well. And other teams will (mistakenly) give a lot for a closer like him. The easiest way to put this is this: Closers are simply NOT important. Historically, the team that leads going into the 9th wins something like 87% of the time. During most of baseball history there was no such thing as a closer. Relief pitchers should be used in high leverage situations based on the order of importance of the situation. I don't know exactly where "closers" comes from (a subject I'll try to learn about and explain later) but it's a weird phenomenon
The Brewers need minor league players more than anything else. Actually they need good minor league POSITION players more than anything. Specifically infielders
2) A Small rant for anyone who reads this. This point concerns trading in fantasy sports. so beware it's bitchy but great advice overall.
In order for a trade to happen in fantasy baseball some Key things need to occur. This is because it doesnt piss the other guy off, making them not want to trade with you again and it helps keep the league more balanced and fun.
a) The trade must be fair. Before hitting submit for the trade think this to yourself. If I had his team and He had mine, would I consider this trade at all? If the answer is no, don't hit submit.
b) Generally speaking, trade the same number of players. a 2 for 1 trade is almost never a fair trade. It looks fair on paper for the guy gaining the 2 players i.e. the production of those 2 players in some combination makes the production (or is slightly over) of the one player. but this doesnt mean it's fair.
Take this example (actual trade offer i received)
I trade Miguel Cabrera
I receive Carlos Beltran and Carlos Pena.
On the surface it seems like a fairish trade, but it's not. Carlos Beltran and Pena will defintly have more HR more RBI more SB than Cabrera. But here's the problem, it's not just them vs Cabrera. It's those 2 vs Cabrera AND the player i'd have to bench in order to play both of them (If i bench one it's more like a straight up trade for say Pena for Cabrera which would be terrible).
Furthermore there's another reason this specific trade is bad: Cabrera is a top 3 pick on every single draft I did. This is because of his year to year consistency. He's not always the best 1B (or 3B this year) but he's pretty much always top 5. Beltran and Pena are not consistant at all. No matter what their current start of the season production, you have no idea where they end the year. Beltran specifically is an injury risk. Cabrera is pretty much (barring unforseen random injury) .300 avg 100 RBI 100 runs 20-30 HR. History says thats his floor. Beltran hasnt hit those numbers in about 5 year (when he used to be a stolen base threat as well but before injury)
3) Trading hitters for hitters (or pitchers for pitchers or RB for RB or WR for WR or Goaltender for goaltender) is in general a bad trade unless its a multi player trade and gives both sides something they are missing. If a team needs pitchers offering him (like my last trade) Beltran and Pena for Cabrera isnt a good trade. It doesnt help his team at all. However if it was say Bourne and Beltran it would be more fair as it gives SB that the intiial guy doesnt have.
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